Skip to content
DM · Daniil Maximkin
Interactive tool

Ad Leak Estimator

A rough estimate of the monthly budget that a tracking-loss rate can misdirect. Set your numbers, pick an assumed loss rate, and the tool applies two simple formulas. It runs in your browser — nothing you enter leaves this page.

Your numbers
$40,000
3.8x

Example scenarios — not measured industry averages.

Reported ROAS
3.80
Est. true ROAS
2.85
Est. monthly spend misdirected
$10,000

Budget optimized toward duplicate or mismatched attribution signals, under the assumptions you selected.

This is a rough estimate based on the loss rate you choose, not a measurement of your account.

How this is calculated

The tool applies two formulas to the numbers you enter:

  • Estimated true ROAS = reported ROAS × (1 − loss rate)
  • Estimated wasted spend = monthly spend × loss rate

The loss rate is an assumption you pick, not a measurement. The three presets are illustrative example scenarios, not measured industry averages: a minor checkout gap, a typical pixel-plus-CAPI double-fire, and a severe tracking failure. Your real loss rate can only be found by reconciling reported conversions against your actual orders.

Worked example. At $40,000/month of spend, a reported 3.8x ROAS, and a 25% assumed loss rate:

  • Estimated true ROAS = 3.8 × (1 − 0.25) = 2.85
  • Estimated wasted spend = $40,000 × 0.25 = $10,000

Limitations

  • It is a rough arithmetic model, not a measurement of your account.
  • It assumes the loss rate you select; it cannot detect your real one.
  • It ignores differences in how each platform attributes conversions (view-through, attribution windows, modeling).
  • It is not a substitute for an order-level reconciliation.
Related guide Why GA4 revenue doesn’t match Shopify orders Where a real loss rate actually comes from.
Measure it for real Get a Tracking Audit Replace the assumption with a reconciliation against your orders.
View the audit